Study on short-range numerical forecasting of ocean current in the East China Sea——Ⅰ Basic problems of ocean current forecasting and structure of the models     

Zhao Jinping  Chen Zhongyong  Shi Maochong 《海洋学报(英文版)》1993,12(3):335-345

Ocean current forecasting is still in explorative stage of study. In the study, we face some problems that have not been met before. The solving of these problems has become fundamental premise for realizing the ocean current forecasting. In the present paper are discussed in depth the physical essence for such basic problems as the predictability of ocean current, the predictable currents, the dynamical basis for studying respectively the tidal current and circulation, the necessity of boundary model, the models on regions with different scales and their link. The foundations and plans to solve the problems are demonstrated. Finally a set of operational numerical forecasting system for ocean current is proposed.  相似文献   

珠江三角洲网河区水位变化趋势研究   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

沈焕庭  杨清书  罗宪林  罗章仁  杨干然  欧素英 《海洋学报》2002,24(2):30-38

根据珠江三角洲网河区29个验潮站的实测验潮记录,应用傅氏变换与最平滤波器串联的方法来消除月均序列的周期波动对确定水位变化趋势的影响,由低通序列一元线性回归分析确定各站水位的变化趋势;结果表明,周期波动对确定海平面变化趋势的影响是显著的.应用经验正交函数(EOF)对网河区的水位变化场进行分解,由相互独立的时间函数和空间特征函数表征网河区区域的水位变化特征;应用时间特征函数计算区域水位的平均变化率为0.02mm/a.根据验潮站的水位变化趋势,探讨网河区水位变化与河床冲淤的关系.  相似文献   

1990年12月14日台湾强震的预报判据     

顾延芬 《台湾海峡》1993,12(1):81-84

本文运用福建省沿海气象要素的异常变化,作台湾省的中、短期地震预报,取得了成功的效果。采用长乐历年各月14时最低气压的距平值,作台湾省未来4～7个月内出现强震的预报依据,并采用热异常进行短临跟踪。当秋冬季节连续4d 长乐、福州、台北的气温均比广州累计高出10℃时,预报未来1～5d 台湾省出现7级强震。又根据近百年来台湾发生的强震,统计其活动季节,得到近20年来7级地震发生的时间,绝大部分在9～12月。  相似文献   

Research on the spectral analysis and test method of period signals in monthly mean sea level     

Ma Jirui  Tian Suzhen  Zheng Wenzhen  Chai Xinmin 《海洋学报(英文版)》1995,14(2):181-190

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莱州湾温带风暴潮预报研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

张胜平  徐振山  王军  丁吉龙  侯庆华 《海洋预报》2002,19(1):64-72

本文依据莱州湾羊角沟、夏营两站建国以来的风暴增水资料，对莱州湾建国后发生的风暴潮进行了统计分析，并探讨了温带风暴潮产生的物理机制，此外还对莱州湾温带风暴增水以及诱发增水的天气形势进行了分析分类。在此基础上建立了莱州湾温带风暴潮统计预报方法，并在作业预报中对模型进行了检验，取得较为理想的效果。  相似文献   

Biological processes and environmental factors regulating the dynamics of the Norwegian Skagerrak cod populations since 1919   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

Fromentin  Jean-Marc; Gjosaeter  Jakob; Bjornstad  Ottar N.; Stenseth  N. Chr. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2000,57(2):330-338

  相似文献   

Distribution and abundance patterns of two parapagurid hermit crabs (Crustacea: Decapoda: Anomura) along the west and south coasts of South Africa     

AG Wright  TP Fairweather 《African Journal of Marine Science》2020,42(2):177-183

A series of over 6 000 research-trawl samples collected along the west and south coasts of South Africa between 1987 and 2014 were analysed for the presence and biomass of two parapagurid hermit crabs, Sympagurus dimorphus and Parapagurus bouvieri. The percentage of trawls that landed S. dimorphus and P. bouvieri and the mean caught biomass were higher on the west than on the south coast for both the more-abundant S. dimorphus (30.59 vs 5.81% success and 287.88 vs 31.37 kg km^–2, respectively) and for the less-abundant P. bouvieri (13.76 vs 3.58% success and 38.56 vs 16.32 kg km^–2, respectively). Very few parapagurids were caught shallower than 150 m; thereafter, the proportion of trawls containing hermit crabs increased, peaking over the depth range 201–250 m for S. dimorphus (54%) and 401–450 m for P. bouvieri (51%), and declining steadily thereafter. On the west coast, the relative caught biomass of S. dimorphus increased significantly from north to south, but there was no apparent latitudinal trend in relative biomass for P. bouvieri. Similarly, there was a significant decline in caught biomass of S. dimorphus with increasing longitude along the south coast, but no apparent trend for P. bouvieri. Although this represents by far the most comprehensive global analyses of distribution and abundance patterns for parapagurids to date, extremely little remains known about the biology and ecological relationships of these species, or indeed of other members of the group.  相似文献   

GIS与遥感支持下的南黄海辐射沙脊群现代演变趋势分析   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：4  

李海宇  王颖 《海洋科学》2002,26(9):61-65

南黄海辐射沙脊群是世界罕见的大型水下泥沙堆积体，具有独特的动力地貌组合。利用1988-1995年的LANDSATTM遥感影像，ERS1SAR影像及1979年编绘地形资料，综合应用GIS与遥感方法，对这一区域在20世纪80-90年代的变化及演变趋势作出分析，其基本演变特征与趋势表现为；沙脊群枢纽地区处于不断的增长，扩张过程；南部区域堆积与侵蚀作用较弱，沿岸潮滩向海淤进；而北部区域变化较强烈，并继续脊槽相间的模式，所取得的结果与该区域动力地貌研究结果相吻合。  相似文献   

Neural network for wave forecasting among multi-stations     

Ching-Piao Tsai  Chang Lin  Jia-N Shen 《Ocean Engineering》2002,29(13):1685-1695

Unlike in the open sea, the use of wind information for forecasting waves may encounter more ambiguous uncertainties in the coastal or harbor area due to the influence of complicated geometric configurations. Thus this paper attempts to forecast the waves based on learning the characteristics of observed waves, rather than the use of the wind information. This is reported in this paper by the application of the artificial neural network (ANN), in which the back-propagation algorithm is employed in the learning process for obtaining the desired results. This model evaluated the interconnection weights among multi-stations based on the previous short-term data, from which a time series of waves at a station can be generated for forecasting or data supplement based on using the neighbor stations data. Field data are used for testing the applicability of the ANN model. The results show that the ANN model performs well for both wave forecasting and data supplement when using a short-term observed wave data.  相似文献   

东太平洋多金属结核分布的二维趋势面分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

章伟艳  张富元  马维林 《海洋学研究》2001,19(1):27-34

对规则网的 469个测站的多金属结核丰度和 93个测站的 Mn、 Cu、 Co、 Ni元素进行趋势面分析 ,经 F检验 ,各变量的变异性显著 ,拟合度较低 ,表明多金属结核丰度及 Mn、Cu、Co、Ni金属元素的控制因素比较复杂。趋势面分析结果与相关分析结果一致 ,Mn、Cu、Ni元素有极相似的趋势特征 ,有两个轴向分布 ,一个为东西向轴 ,高值区在东部 ,另一个为北西向轴 ,高值区在北西部 ;结核丰度与 Co也有极相似的趋势特征 ,高值区在西部。应用逐次趋势面分析的结果将结核丰度的地质特征分解成各种简单控制因素的叠加 ,使对多金属结核的控矿因素、分布规律和物质来源的研究方法多样化  相似文献